“The Coming Global Oil Crisis?”
ROMANIA OIL & GAS CONGRESS 2005
The first Petroleum Club event organized this spring, with the support of ROMPETROL , was “The Coming Global Oil Crisis?” Session, which took place at the ROMANIA OIL & GAS CONGRESS 2005, at JW Marriott Bucharest Grand Hotel, on March 23 rd .
The Congress brought together government officials, associated NGO's and academics, financial and legal analysts, and top management of the corporate world. Together they examined the problems and opportunities confronting the oil industry in an orchestrated program of seven sessions over a two-day period that encourages personal contact and focused debate.
The purpose of the Petroleum Club Session – in a new era of high prices for crude oil and natural gas – was to discuss one of the most important issues of our time: Are we facing a Coming Global Oil Crisis? And further, what is the future of oil and gas? The generous and challenging topics were addressed by two distinguished speakers: Mr. Jean Laherrere, Member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, and Mr. Dorin Baru, M anaging Director, DXB Consulting International and also a Member of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Mr. Jean Laherrere's complex and thorough presentation, entitled “The Fossil Fuels Future Production”, is available here for download, as it is Mr. Baru's, “Major Oil & Gas Reserves; Case Study – ACG Production Sharing Agreement, South Caspian Basin, Azerbaijan”. Among the most interesting and challenging conclusions regarding Peak Oil we can mention:
Reserve uncertainty is large because of the geological complexity;
As long as the OPEC members (80% of world reserves) fight for quotas (as long as spare capacity exists) data will not improve;
US discovery peaked in the 1930's and US oil production peaked in 1970. World oil discovery peaked in the 1960's and production could peak within the next decade or so;
The coming oil peak could be in fact a bumpy plateau if economic depression constraints the demand and delays the peak;
Fossil fuels will peak around 2030, but the production per capita, which was flat for the last 25 years will stay flat for the next 25 years;
High energy price is the best solution to save energy and solve future demand problems;
The sooner consumers know about the oil peak and change their life style the later will the oil peak occur.
The audience closely followed the two presentations and fully used the Q & A discussion part, skillfully moderated by Mr. Bogdan Popescu, the President of the Petroleum Club. “The Coming Global Oil Crisis?” Session proved to be an excellent opportunity to introduce and thoroughly explain and debate the complex issue of Peak Oil in Romania at one of the most important events of the oil industry, Romanian Oil & Gas Congress 2005.